The Authoritarian Drift of the Trump Administration: A Risk Assessment

By Bodo Seifert

As Donald Trump’s second term progresses, a pattern of authoritarian-leaning actions has emerged. One recent example is the attempt to suppress the First Amanedment (Free Speech). Many of us citizens on both sides of the isle are concerned about these trends and in this article, I want to summarize the threats and raise awareness about them.

From the dismissal of federal watchdogs to the politicization of the Department of Justice, these moves collectively point toward a weakening of democratic safeguards. If current trends continue, the United States risks sliding into what political scientists call competitive authoritarianism — a system where elections still exist, but institutions are hollowed out and dissent is increasingly suppressed. Here are the warning signs:

Weaponizing the Justice Department

Three key signs to watch for:

Prosecution of opponents: DOJ resources increasingly focused on investigating political rivals, universities, NGOs, journalists, or state/local officials deemed “oppositional.” Example February 18, 2025: Trump instructed DOJ to terminate all U.S. attorneys appointed by Biden. While change in presidential administrations often leads to replacement of some U.S. attorneys, the manner and scale here are unusually sweeping and abrupt. Critics argue this can be used to purge dissenting voices in law enforcement across the country. Reuters+2The Gu

Protection of allies: Pardons, dropped cases, or DOJ non-intervention for allies accused of crimes. Example: January 20, 2025: Trump pardons to some 1,500 January 6 rioters. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/20/g-s1-36809/trump-pardons-january-6-riot.

Shift in legal doctrine: Greater embrace of “unitary executive theory,” arguing the President controls all law enforcement discretion.The Department of Justice has undergone sweeping changes since January 2025. High-profile prosecutors resigned after cases against political allies were abruptly dropped, anti-corruption units were gutted, and U.S. Attorneys were replaced en masse. The trajectory points toward a justice system increasingly used as a tool against political opponents while shielding allies from accountability.

Undermining Independent Oversight

On January 24, 2025, Trump dismissed 17 inspectors general (IGs) across federal agencies, a move later ruled unlawful by a federal judge — though not reversed. Oversight offices, the very institutions tasked with uncovering corruption, are being hollowed out or politicized. Without watchdogs, executive power expands unchecked. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/judge-will-not-reinstate-us-government-watchdogs-despite-unlawful-firings-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com.

Attacks on Elections and Institutions

Elections remain a central battleground. Efforts to purge voter rolls, impose restrictive voting requirements, and delegitimize opposition as “enemies within” point to an erosion of electoral integrity. Lawsuits against blue states’ election systems may further tilt the playing field. While elections will likely continue, their fairness is under mounting threat.

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/g-s1-55927/trump-voting-citizenship-executive-order

These are high risks to watch for in the next three years.

Expanding Executive Power

Project 2025, a sweeping reorganization blueprint, seeks to replace career civil servants with political loyalists and centralize control in the White House. Emergency powers, already used to justify “crime emergencies” and immigration crackdowns, could become normalized. These steps would allow the executive to dominate policymaking across government.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/fcc-chair-brendan-carr-offers-callous-response-to-actor-s-post-about-project-2025/ar-AA1NnenP

Suppression of Civil Liberties

Civil society is facing increasing pressure. Foreign students and academics risk deportation for protest activity, and movements like “antifa” may be designated as terrorist organizations. Federal forces have already been deployed in cities, raising fears of expanded protest suppression.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5524132-antifa-executive-order-criticism/

Federal–State Conflict

Blue states are preparing for direct clashes with Washington. Legal battles over abortion rights, climate policy, and education are likely to escalate, with Trump using federal preemption and funding cuts as leverage. Although full federal–state standoffs remain less likely, the risks are rising.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/21/politics/blue-state-flood-prevention-cuts

These are medium risks to watch for in the next three years.

The Road to 2029

If current trends persist, then a probable outcome is a “managed democracy” model https://academia-lab.com/encyclopedia/managed-democracy, resembling Hungary or Turkey: elections continue, but opposition parties, media, and watchdogs operate under severe constraints. Two alternative scenarios remain possible:

• Crisis authoritarianism — if unrest or crisis triggers emergency powers and broader suspension of rights.

• Institutional pushback — if courts, states, and civil society resist strongly enough to slow authoritarian consolidation.

Each risk can be monitored through early warning signs such as watchdog firings, voter roll purges, or protester prosecutions. By tracking both status and trend, it becomes possible to assess whether the authoritarian drift is accelerating or being contained.

Conclusion

The Trump administration’s first year back in power has shown authoritarian tendencies. The coming months will determine whether the United States remains a flawed but resilient democracy, or whether it slips further into competitive authoritarianism. The key lies in whether institutions — courts, Congress, the press, and the states — can withstand the pressure. We all can do our part to push back against this slide of our democracy by writing to our elected leaders, voting against politicians that support this trend and by staying informed.